米国の住宅価格はすぐ下落するのでしょうか？ 場所によって分かれる。

 

画像出典: EPA/Shutterstock

テキサス州の販売住宅数はパンデミック前の水準に戻った後も増加を続けている。

米国の住宅市場には明らかな地域差が見られます。一部の地域では買い手は強い交渉力を持っていますが、他の地域では依然として入札合戦に直面しています。

全米の販売住宅の供給はまだ正常に戻っていない。全米不動産業者協会によると、1月の米国の中古住宅在庫は5年前の水準を16％下回った。極めて低い金利で住宅ローンを組んだ住宅所有者は、安く借りる機会を失うことを恐れて売却に消極的となっている。しかし、これ以上引っ越しを先延ばしにできないと判断する人が増え、このロックダウンの影響が徐々に緩和され始めており、供給は増加している。

全体的なデータでは、さまざまな状態のリバウンド速度は大きく異なります。いくつかの地域の在庫レベルは2019年のレベルを超えています。 Realtor.com のデータによると、テキサス州では販売中の不動産の数がパンデミック前より 20% 増加しています。フロリダ州とコロラド州のデータも2019年の水準を上回った。

一方で、北東部や中西部の一部地域では供給が逼迫している。ニュージャージー州やペンシルベニア州を含む15の州では、市場で販売されている住宅の数がパンデミック前の通常レベルの半分未満にとどまっている。

住宅市場の回復速度の違いにはいくつかの要因があります。 1つ目は、新築住宅の供給過剰だ。全米住宅建設業者協会によると、12月に建設業者が市場に出した売れ残った一戸建て住宅の数は11万8000戸で、2009年8月以来の高水準となった。

許可申請によると、ほとんどの新規建設は南部、特にフロリダとテキサスで行われている。フロリダ・リアルターズのチーフエコノミスト、ブラッド・オコナー氏の推計によると、フロリダ州の住宅在庫は2020年以来15％増加した。これらの新築住宅は、住宅ローン金利が高止まりしており、購入者の需要が異常に弱かった時期に市場に登場した。家は売れないので在庫が増え続けます。

一方、イリノイ州など他の一部の州では、厳格な土地区画法と高額な建設コストが新築住宅の建設を妨げている。販売中の中古住宅の在庫が再び逼迫している。イリノイ・リアルターズのジェフ・ベイカー最高経営責任者（CEO）は、州内の多くの住宅所有者が引っ越しを望んでいるが、供給が非常に少なく、価格が非常に高いため、人々は元の家に留まらざるを得ないと語った。

安い住宅ローンのロックイン効果も一部の地域では他の地域に比べて若干弱く、これが住宅が市場に出るまでの早さに影響を及ぼします。ジョン・バーンズ・リサーチ・アンド・コンサルティングの上級副社長、クリス・ポーター氏の分析によると、昨年第3四半期の住宅ローン残高のうち、金利が6％以上の住宅ローン残高は南部では平均21％だったのに対し、北東部では18％だった。その主な理由は、金利が上昇して以来、人々の南部への移住が続いているため、この地域でより多くの住宅が販売されたことです。

米国国勢調査局の2023年の推計によると、南部の住宅所有者は全国平均と比べて完全に住宅を所有する傾向がわずかに高い。住宅ローンのない住宅所有者は、引っ越しの際に新たに高金利の住宅ローンを組む必要がないため、住宅を売却する際により柔軟に対応できます。

一部の州で在庫が急速に増加しているもう1つの理由は、不動産価値が過大評価されているように見えるため、買い手が買い取っていないことです。パンデミック中の移住ブームにより、一部のサンベルト州では住宅価格が国内の他の地域よりも早く上昇している。レッドフィンによると、フロリダ州では住宅価格の中央値が過去5年間で64％上昇したのに対し、イリノイ州では42％、ニューヨーク州では17％上昇した。

保険料の高騰に加え、住宅価格の高騰により、住宅評価額が現地の賃金と乖離している。ジョン・バーンズの手頃な価格指数によると、フロリダ州の主要大都市圏の一部における住宅所有の平均コストは現在、地元の平均収入の 44% に相当します。この割合は 2019 年の 28% よりも高くなっています。フロリダ州への移住者数が鈍化するにつれ、現在の住宅価格を支える新たな高所得者が減少している。

住宅購入者にとって朗報は、供給過剰な州では住宅価格が改善されることだ。住宅ローン金利が下がらない限り、テキサス州などの住宅価格は下落する可能性が高い。対照的に、北東部と中西部の多くの地域では供給不足が不動産価格を下支えするだろう。

全米の住宅価格は過大評価されているように見えるが、供給状況は非常に不均一だ。この奇妙な不動産市場の次の段階で起こる可能性があるのは、一部の地域の価格が急落する一方、他の地域では価格が上昇し続けることです。

2023年10月29日（日曜日）Top 25 配当優良銘柄

（このリストは、Insider Monkey 910 のヘッジファンドのデータベースをスキャンし、5 年以上連続して増配を行っている企業を特定しました。 このリストから、10月2日時点で2023年にプラスのリターンを生み出した銘柄をピックアップし、2023年第2四半期の時点で株式を保有しているヘッジファンドの数が多い順にランクお付けいたしました。）

配当株への投資は重要。しかし、見た目ほど簡単ではありません。それは一部の企業は配当金を支払っていますが、継続的に配当を維持できておらず、配当金の支払いを減額または完全に停止している企業もあります。 このため、配当を継続的に増額する企業を選んで、投資する必要があります。

プロクター・アンド・ギャンブル・カンパニー (NYSE:PG)、

Colgate-Palmolive Company (NYSE:CL)、

ペプシコ社 (NASDAQ:PEP) 

は数十年にわたって配当金を引き上げてきた最高の配当銘柄の一部であり、投資家にとってのトップの選択肢となっています。 この記事では、2023年の高配当銘柄について説明します。

25. Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE:EPD)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 25

Year-to-Date Returns as of October 2: 12.03%

Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE:EPD) is a Texas-based energy company that operates as a master limited partnership (MLP). It is one of the largest midstream energy companies in the US. The company currently pays a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, having raised it by 2% in July this year. Through this increase, the company stretched its dividend growth streak to 24 years, which makes it one of the best dividend stocks on our list. The stock has a dividend yield of 7.35%, as of October 2.

At the end of Q2 2023, 25 hedge funds in Insider Monkey's database reported having stakes in Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE:EPD), compared with 26 in the previous quarter. The collective value of these stakes is over $272.7 million.

24. Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE:ITW)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 34

Year-to-Date Returns as of October 2: 4.59%

Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE:ITW) is an American diversified manufacturing company that operates in a wide range of industries and provides various products and solutions. On August 4, the company announced a 7% hike in its quarterly dividend to $1.40 per share. This marked the company's 51st consecutive year of dividend growth. As of October 2, the stock has a dividend yield of 2.43%. It is among the best dividend stocks on our list.

As of the close of Q2 2023, 34 hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey owned stakes in Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE:ITW), up from 32 in the previous quarter. The consolidated value of these stakes is over $278.3 million. Among these hedge funds, Markel Gayner Asset Management was the company's largest stakeholder in Q2.

23. Republic Services, Inc. (NYSE:RSG)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 37

Year-to-Date Returns as of October 2: 9.48%

Republic Services, Inc. (NYSE:RSG) is a leading waste management and environmental services company in the US. The company provides a range of services related to waste collection, disposal, recycling, and environmental sustainability.

Republic Services, Inc. (NYSE:RSG) has been raising its dividends consistently for the past 19 years, which makes it one of the best dividend stocks on our list. It currently pays a quarterly dividend of $0.535 per share and has a dividend yield of 1.52%, as of October 2.

At the end of June 2023, 37 hedge funds in Insider Monkey's database held investments in Republic Services, Inc. (NYSE:RSG), compared with 40 in the previous quarter. The total value of these stakes is over $1.8 billion.

The London Company mentioned Republic Services, Inc. (NYSE:RSG) in its Q2 2023 investor letter. Here is what the firm has to say:

“Initiated: Republic Services, Inc. (NYSE:RSG) – RSG is the 2nd largest waste management company in North America. It generates consistent, predictable cash flows with over 80% of its revenues being annuity-like. RSG holds almost 25% of the landfill capacity in the U.S. Industry consolidation and the limited availability of landfills, on top of high transportation costs, have created local duopolies for landfill owners in their respective markets and increased returns. We’re attracted to RSG’s leading position in a stable business with a high degree of recurring revenue, and we believe the company is at an inflection point with its pricing strategy and landfill asset utilization. RSG has a solid balance sheet along with an experienced and shareholder friendly management team.”

22. Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 38

Year-to-Date Returns as of October 2: 18.3%

Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE) is one of the largest and most diversified steel producers in the US. On September 14, the company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.51 per share, which fell in line with its previous dividend. It holds a 50-year streak of consistent dividend growth, which makes it one of the best dividend stocks on our list. The stock's dividend yield on October 2 came in at 1.31%.

Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE) was a part of 38 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q2 2023, as per Insider Monkey's database. The collective value of stakes owned by these hedge funds is over $563.5 million.

21. Stryker Corporation (NYSE:SYK)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 46

Year-to-Date Returns as of October 2: 8.64%

Stryker Corporation (NYSE:SYK) is an American medical technology and medical device company that specializes in the development, manufacturing, and marketing of a wide range of medical products and equipment. The company offers a quarterly dividend of $0.75 per share and has a dividend yield of 1.12%, as of October 2. It has raised its dividends for 29 consecutive years.

At the end of June 2023, 46 hedge funds in Insider Monkey's database owned investments in Stryker Corporation (NYSE:SYK), up from 42 in the previous quarter. The consolidated value of stakes owned by these hedge funds is over $2.42 billion.

20. International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 51

Year-to-Date Returns as of October 2: 0.08%

An American tech company, International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM) is next on our list of the best dividend stocks of 2023. The company has raised its dividends for 28 years consistently and currently pays a quarterly dividend of $1.66 per share. The stock's dividend yield came in at 4.71% on October 2.

The number of hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey owning stakes in International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM) grew to 51 in Q2 2023, from 49 in the previous quarter. The overall value of these stakes is roughly $814 million.

19. Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 55

Year-to-Date Returns as of October 2: 11.48%

Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) is a California-based multinational tech company. It is a leading player in the information technology (IT) and networking industries, providing a wide range of products and services. The company pays a quarterly dividend of $0.39 per share for a dividend yield of 2.92%, as of October 2. It is one of the best dividend stocks on our list as the company has grown its dividends for 12 years straight.

With stakes worth over $1.4 billion, 55 hedge funds in Insider Monkey's database owned positions in Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) at the end of Q2 2023. With nearly 11 million shares, AQR Capital Management was the company's largest stakeholder in Q2.

18. Ecolab Inc. (NYSE:ECL)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 56

Year-to-Date Returns as of October 2: 12.74%

Ecolab Inc. (NYSE:ECL) is an American multinational corporation that specializes in providing water, hygiene, and energy technologies and services. On August 3, the company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.53 per share, which was consistent with its previous dividend. The company's dividend growth streak stands at 31 years, which places it as one of the best dividend stocks on our list. As of October 2, the stock has a dividend yield of 1.28%.

Of the 910 hedge funds in Insider Monkey's database at the end of Q2 2023, 56 funds owned investments in Ecolab Inc. (NYSE:ECL), up from 53 in the previous quarter. The collective value of these stakes is roughly $2.3 billion.

17. McKesson Corporation (NYSE:MCK)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 60

Year-to-Date Returns as of October 2: 17.01%

McKesson Corporation (NYSE:MCK) is one of the largest healthcare services and pharmaceutical distribution companies in the world. On July 24, the company announced a 15% hike in its quarterly dividend to $0.62 per share. This marked the company's seventh consecutive year of dividend growth, which makes it one of the best dividend stocks on our list. The stock has a dividend yield of 0.57%, as of October 2.

The number of hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey owning stakes in McKesson Corporation (NYSE:MCK) stood at 60 in Q2 2023, which remained unchanged from the previous quarter. The consolidated value of these stakes is over $3.1 billion.

16. ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 62

Year-to-Date Returns as of October 2: 2.76%

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is one of the world's largest independent exploration and production (E&P) companies in the energy sector. The company has raised its dividends every year since 2015, which makes it one of the best dividend stocks on our list. It offers a quarterly dividend of $0.51 per share and has a dividend yield of 3.91%, as of October 2.

As of the end of Q2 2023, 62 hedge funds in Insider Monkey's database reported having stakes in ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), worth collectively $2.6 billion. With nearly 15 million shares, Harris Associates was the company's leading stakeholder in Q2.

15. Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 64

Year-to-Date Returns as of October 2: 0.13%

An American retail corporation, Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW) has been growing its dividends consistently for the past 59 years. The company pays a quarterly dividend of $1.10 per share and has a dividend yield of 2.21%, as of October 2.

At the end of Q2 2023, 64 hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey reported owning stakes in Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW), compared with 67 in the previous quarter. The collective value of these stakes is over $3.7 billion. Among these hedge funds, Pershing Square was the company's leading stakeholder in Q2.

14. Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADI)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 65

Year-to-Date Returns as of October 2: 6.73%

Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADI) is a leading global semiconductor company that specializes in designing, manufacturing, and marketing analog, mixed-signal, and digital signal processing (DSP) integrated circuits and solutions. The company offers a quarterly dividend of $0.86 per share and has a dividend yield of 1.98%. The company maintains a 20-year streak of consistent dividend growth.

At the end of the June quarter of 2023, 65 hedge funds owned stakes in Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADI), worth collectively over $5 billion.

Madison Investments mentioned Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADI) in its Q2 2023 investor letter. Here is what the firm has to say:

“The bottom five individual contributors for the quarter were U.S. Bancorp, Progressive, Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADI), Dollar Tree, and Danaher. Analog Devices and Danaher are both seeing end market demand moderate (in semiconductor and medical research, respectively) compared to the artificially high levels they experienced for two years due to the post-Covid chaos in supply chains. Despite these near-term dynamics, we think the longer-term outlooks remain excellent in both cases.”

13. Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ:CMCSA)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 66

Year-to-Date Returns as of October 2: 22.77%

Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ:CMCSA) is an American multinational telecommunications and media company that operates through several subsidiaries and divisions and offers a wide range of products and services. The company maintains a 15-year streak of consistent dividend growth and currently pays a quarterly dividend of $0.29 per share. As of October 2, the stock has a dividend yield of 2.66%.

As of the end of Q2 2023, 66 hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey reported having stakes in Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ:CMCSA), compared with 68 in the previous quarter. The collective value of these stakes is over $3.14 billion.

12. Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 67

Year-to-Date Returns as of October 2: 25.3%

Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) is a multinational retail corporation that operates a chain of membership-based warehouse club stores. The company offers a per-share dividend of $1.02 every quarter for a dividend yield of 0.72%, as of October 2. It has been rewarding shareholders with growing dividends for the past 19 years.

The number of hedge funds in Insider Monkey's database owning stakes in Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) grew to 67 in Q2 2023, from 63 in the previous quarter. The collective value of these stakes is over $2.24 billion.

RiverPark Advisors mentioned Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) in its Q2 2023 investor letter. Here is what the firm has to say:

“Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST), founded in 1983, is the world’s third-largest retailer with 850 stores, $240 billion in revenue and 68 million members spread across North America, Europe, Asia, and the Southern Pacific Region. The company is known for its strong value proposition driven by high-quality low-cost offerings including a well-regarded private-label brand. Costco regularly ranks at the top of customer surveys related to brand trust, product price and quality, and all-around experience. Historically, 90% of the company’s shoppers renew their memberships, which generate more than 50% of operating income.

Through expanding market share, new store openings, increasing member productivity, and omnichannel expansion, we believe the company can grow revenues annually in the high single digit percentage range. This revenue growth should yield steadily growing margins and EPS growth in the low-to-mid-teens, which should drive shareholder returns in the same range.”

11. Linde plc (NYSE:LIN)

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 70

Year-to-Date Returns as of October 2: 16.51%

Linde plc (NYSE:LIN) is a multinational industrial gases and engineering company that operates in various sectors, including industrial, healthcare, and specialty gases. The company's dividend growth streak currently stands at 28 years, which makes it one of the best dividend stocks on our list. It pays a quarterly dividend of $1.275 per share and has a dividend yield of 1.37%, as of October 2.

At the end of June 2023, 70 hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey owned investments in Linde plc (NYSE:LIN), the same as in the previous quarter. The overall value of these stakes is more than $4.5 billion.

Disclosure. None. Top 25 Dividend Stocks of 2023 is originally published on Insider Monkey.